Christian Kirk has been developing great chemistry with Trevor Lawrence, and can carve up a susceptible Eagles secondary. See why he'll continue to be part of the Jaguars' success in Week 4's Doug Pederson Revenge Game.
The Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars have had this Week 4 game circled since the schedule released back in the spring. And with both teams looking fantastic the past two weeks, NFL bettors are taking notice as well.
Philadelphia’s former Super Bowl-winning coach and new head coach of Jacksonville, Doug Pederson, returns to Lincoln Financial Field — where a statue of him and his infamous “Philly Special” stands — for the first time since the team fired him in 2020.
Jacksonville is a sizable NFL odds underdog against the 3-0 Eagles, despite impressive wins over Indianapolis and the L.A. Chargers. Both teams have been darlings of the sharp betting sect since the offseason, drawing massive amounts of futures money and action in the opening three weeks of the 2022 slate.
It all makes for a must-bet matchup in the City of Brotherly Love. I run down the interesting line movement for the spread and total and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Jaguars vs. Eagles on October 2.
If you read my weekly NFL Underdogs column, you’ll see I’ve already bet Jacksonville +7.5 on the opener, and I’m good with taking +6.5 for this game, as I believe the gap between these two teams is not as big as the oddsmakers' expectations for Sunday.
Along with that — and one of the reasons I do like the Jaguars to cover — is the rapid maturation of quarterback Trevor Lawrence and the passing game. Pederson is the perfect guide for Lawrence and is maximizing an underrated group of skill players.
One of those talents shining brightest through three weeks is big offseason addition WR Christian Kirk, who leads the team in receiving yards (267) and has the skill set to give the Eagles defense fits in Week 4.
Kirk is a shifty route runner in the slot — a precise passing weapon that can slice and dice Jonathan Gannon’s zone coverage. The Eagles play deep, guarding against the home run, but that leaves them vulnerable to shorter hits.
They gave up 64 yards on eight catches to Detroit WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, 52 yards on four grabs to Minnesota WR Adam Thielen, and 48 yards on seven receptions to Commanders WR Curtis Samuel — all of which featured plenty of snaps out of the slot in those faceoffs with Philly.
Kirk has started 126 of his total 198 snaps in the slot, but Pederson’s dynamic attack always keeps opponents guessing, and he’ll move his favorite new receiver all over the place to exploit mismatches in coverage. Kirk is making the most of it, posting 14.8 yards per reception, and is a threat to catch and run for big gains as he sits tied for 12th in yards after the catch (113).
Philadelphia’s pass defense has done well but it has also controlled possession and forced foes to get very one-dimensional after building early leads over Minnesota and Washington the past two weeks. Jacksonville is by far the toughest defensive test for the Eagles and has done the same to its opponents, using a potent rushing attack to chew up possessions.
Jacksonville may not get the same number of offensive plays as it has been (averaging 68 per game), which explains the shorter passing yards projection for Kirk in Week 4 when compared to his outputs of 117, 78, and 72 yards.
Books are pegging this prop as low as 57.5 yards versus Philadelphia, which still feels short considering his budding chemistry with Lawrence and the Eagles' susceptibility to slot receivers. Even with a decrease in plays and therefore targets, my projection has Kirk clearing 60 yards with confidence.
And if Philly does build another big lead early on, Kirk’s workload would increase as Jacksonville goes more pass-heavy with the playbook.
My best bet: Christian Kirk Over 57.5 receiving yards ( -115 at BetMGM)
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The look-ahead line set for this Pederson “Revenge Game” was set at Eagles -6.5 in the summer. After Week 3, the official opener hit the board as high as Philadelphia -7.5 and early money quickly snatched up the road underdog above a touchdown.
That spread slipped under the touchdown to Eagles -6.5 by Monday morning and has stayed relatively steady at that spot. Philadelphia has been a very popular bet for pros and joes to start 2022, and their undefeated record has drawn in 61% of bets and 66% of handle at PointsBet books.
This is a tough travel spot for the Jaguars, who are playing their second straight road game after visiting Los Angeles last week. It's also their third road stop in the first four weeks of the season and the team did stay in town to practice this week with Hurricane Ian skirting Duval County.
This total had a look-ahead number of 47.5 points in the summer and the official opener that hit the boards Sunday night was at 48 points. That total ticked up to 48.5 before dropping like a stone on Wednesday, sitting as low as 46.5 points.
You have two run-centric teams that could keep the clock ticking with short gains (Eagles handoff on 49.52% of plays/Jaguars 44.61%) and the Philadelphia defense plays deep zone coverage protecting against any longer shots over the top.
The Eagles have gone Under in their last two outings, limiting Minnesota and Washington to a combined 15 points. Jacksonville, which ranks out near the top of many defensive metrics, has allowed only 10 points in the past two games.
Weather for Week 4 has the potential for rain in Philadelphia and stronger wind gusts from the remnants of Hurricane Ian reaching speeds of up to 32 mph on Sunday afternoon.
PointsBet books are reporting 62% of ticket count on the Over but the 69% of the handle riding the Under is very telling as to where bigger bettors and pro players are wagering.
The Under is 20-7 in Jaguars’ last 27 matchups with a team with a winning record (above .500). Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Eagles.
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
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