Russian armor is now moving into Ukraine along three axes. This photo shows a tank unit training for ... [+] the invasion.(Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP)

The Russians have struck Ukraine in a high-risk, high-reward offensive. By attacking on three widely separated axes, the Russian military is counting on the quick collapse of Ukrainian military forces. If they are right, Russia will rule all Ukraine east of the Dnipro River, if not the entire country. If the gamble fails, the Russian military faces stalemate, casualties, rising discontent, and defeat.

First, there was the air offensive. A surprise attack on air forces and air defenses has become standard for military operations. The Israelis did it in 1967, the Indians did against the Pakistanis in 1971, the Americans did it against the Iraqis in 1991 and again in 2003. These were all successful in damaging the adversary’s air capabilities. The Iraqis tried it against the Iranians in 1980 but failed. Such an operation takes great skill and precise planning. Now the Russians have executed one against Ukraine. The value is that, if successful, it gives the attackers air dominance through the campaign to use their air power broadly, including against ground forces.

The Ukrainians had a weak air force composed of aging Soviet aircraft and a moderately effective air defense built around Soviet S-300s. We can assume that the Ukrainian Air Force is gone, but it is hard for attackers to track down air defense units when they are determined to hide, so Ukraine probably retains some capability here.

A bold offensive on three axes. The Russians appear to be entering Ukraine on three axes: from Belarus on the north towards Kyiv, from the south out of Crimea, and from the eastern regions and Donbas area towards Ukraine’s second largest city, Kharkiv. These attacks are widely separated and not mutually supporting. That's risky. If one attack gets in trouble, the others cannot support it. Further, splitting the offensive into three elements prevents the massing of forces.

Although the Russians reportedly have 190,000 troops, many of these are militia or internal security troops. Its ground forces are not large, given the vast territories involved. When the Soviets faced the Germans along this line in early 1943, they had well over a million men.

A stiletto aimed at Kyiv. The Russians have launched an airmobile assault against an airport outside of Kyiv. Kyiv is only about 90 miles from the border, so this is not a long reach, but these light infantry units will be isolated until heavy ground forces link up or better-equipped units fly in. That's extremely risky. Early reports indicated that the Russians had taken control of the airfield but later reports indicated a successful counterattack by Ukrainian forces. A successful landing would endanger or even capture the Ukrainian capital and perhaps end the conflict right there.

An amphibious landing along Ukraine’s south coast? Early reports indicated that Russian troops might have come ashore from the Black Sea fleet. The capacity of the Russian amphibious ships is quite limited, so these troops are likely not numerous, perhaps 1,000 to 2,000 in all. This is not D-Day transposed to the Black Sea. This is really a raiding force. However, if such an operation did take place, it will force the Ukrainians to spread their forces out further. If the Russians are lucky, they might capture a major asset, like Odessa, before the Ukrainians can react.

Counting on Ukrainian collapse. Time is not on the side of the Russians. Already there are antiwar protests in Russian cities, and sanctions will begin to bite. If Ukrainian forces hold together and conduct a coordinated defense, the Russians could be in a lot of trouble. With their relatively weak forces widely spread out, the separate Russian attacks could be defeated in detail. At the least, the Ukrainians might force a stalemate, which would likely lead to a Russian defeat.

Instead, the Russians are counting on the Ukrainian military and government to collapse. In part, the Russians may be believing their own propaganda that dissatisfaction is rife among the Ukrainian population, particularly with the Russian-speaking elements. But the Ukrainians have been hit with a heavy blow, the classic shock and awe. Although thousands of civilians are fleeing, the military needs to hold firm.

Initial reports are sketchy, and much is still unclear. There's very little reported yet about Ukrainian countermoves and whether they are able to take advantage of the Russian vulnerabilities. Given the high risk of Putin's gamble, however, this conflict will likely be decided quickly one way or the other.